The years 2020 and 2021 were challenges for the tourism industry, at least. The coronavirus pandemic has led to huge losses around the world. All hope was in 2022 – as pandemic-related constraints began to loosen, the industry looked set to recover. Then came February 24 when Russia attacked Ukraine.
DW is examining whether war has replaced the pandemic as a holiday restriction in Europe. Tourists can avoid traveling to Central and Eastern Europe, especially to the countries bordering Ukraine.
After two years of the pandemic, many may have been hoping for a vacation. German Finance and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck spoke about the potential of the tourism industry on the International Tourism Exchange (ITB), the world’s largest travel exhibition, which is being held digitally in Berlin until March 10. Habeck said “there is no better counterweight to war than tourism” and added that people could gain new experiences and even make friends during their travels, he said.
The intensity affects tourism
However, in the run-up to the war, is it possible to travel to Baltic countries or to Ukraine’s immediate neighbors, such as Poland, Hungary or Slovakia? “There is nothing against it,” Samed Kizgin, a travel security expert, told DW. Kizgin works for A3M Global monitoring, a company that assesses the safety of tour operators and internationally active companies traveling to certain areas. The German Foreign Ministry, for example, has not issued a travel warning, he points out. At most, refugee flows could lead to restrictions in some areas, so the question is more whether one chooses to travel to neighboring countries or not.
The number of tourists in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as elsewhere in the world, has dropped significantly in the last two years due to the pandemic. But in the case of Ukraine’s neighbors, geopolitical tensions also play a role, says Kizgin: “Tourism in the region has been suspended for years because
it has been burning for a long time and people knew that at some point it would become a big bang “.
From self-confidence to uncertainty
When people think of vacationing in Europe, the countries of Southern Europe, including Spain, France and Italy, usually come to mind – after all, they usually attract the most tourists. Central and Eastern Europe lags slightly behind, but is still popular with tourists. Hungary and the Czech Republic are in high demand for wellness and holiday accommodation in the city. Poland is known for its cities such as Krakow and Warsaw and the villages on the Baltic Sea coast. Romania and Bulgaria, meanwhile, are attracting tourists who love beaches because of their location on the Black Sea. The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to the north, which border Russia and Belarus, tend to attract those who prefer enchanting landscapes and quiet cities with many options for hiking and cycling.
If you look at the two countries bordering Ukraine popular with tourists, Hungary and Poland, you can see the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel. According to the European statistical office Eurostat, about 900,000 tourists came to Hungary and Poland in the summer months of 2019. In 2020, the country showed about a third of the previous year, while in 2021 it was also sluggish. Those who came were mainly from inside Europe. “We saw very strong growth before the pandemic in the Chinese market; unfortunately, this market collapsed completely,” Konrad Gouldon, head of the Polish Tourism Office in Berlin, told DW.
Then came the beginning of 2022 when restrictions on the pandemic were reduced. But the uncertainty was created by the war in Ukraine. At the moment, however, it is too early to predict whether people will cancel their travel plans as a result, says Guldon. He sees no effect of the crisis on holidaymakers in Poland. While refugees from Ukraine are staying in hotels and hostels, “it does not affect the resorts usually booked by Germans or other foreign visitors,” he added. In addition, popular holiday destinations do not share a border with Ukraine: These include the Baltic Sea coast, the Krkonoše Mountains and the Hirschberg Valley.
The idea of going on vacation seems far away
While it is still too early to assess the impact of the war on the 2022 holiday season, Anke Budde, vice-president of the German Federal Association of Freelance Entrepreneurs, sees the first clouds gathering in the blue sky. It feels like people have stopped making reservations. “It’s like a shock paralysis,” Budde told DW. Many people are just preoccupied with the war and many are volunteering, so for them the idea of going on vacation seems far away, he says.
In addition to pandemics and war, there is a third challenge: Rising commodity prices. “The cost of heating is rising, the cost of gasoline is rising. So people have less and less money available,” Budde explains. This could also make travel more expensive, although travel from Northern Europe to Spain, Italy and Greece to the South is more likely to be affected, the world’s largest travel group TUI told DW.
The human aspect
Jochen Szech is president of the Alliance of Independent Travel Entrepreneurs and owner of Go East Reisen, a German travel agency specializing in Eastern European travel. His concerns are not purely financial. Although it has seen some cancellations, it has noticed a few new bookings, despite the fact that no travel warnings have been issued for the Baltic countries or Poland.
He is more concerned about the human impact of the war – he has been traveling to Ukraine and Russia for about 30 years. “I have a lot of friends there. This is unthinkable for me,” Szech told DW. He spent three days trying to contact an employee at his Ukrainian partner company. Eventually he succeeded and learned that his colleague was busy organizing the safe exit of his family. When he came in contact with his partner company in Russia, with which he has been working for 20 years, she burst into tears during the video call. Her boss had just told her she was firing all his employees: Tourists were no longer coming to Russia. Such stories show again that the war knows no winners.
The extent to which the global tourism industry will be affected by the war remains uncertain.
This article was translated from German.
Add Comment