Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but that has not been evident in its initial invasion of Ukraine. Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by his battlefield performance so far, with one describing him as “dismal”.
His military advances appear to have largely stalled and some now question whether he can recover from the losses he has suffered. This week, a senior NATO military official told the BBC that “the Russians clearly haven’t achieved their objectives and probably won’t at the end of the day.” so what has gone wrong? I have spoken with senior Western military officers and intelligence officials about the mistakes Russia has made.
Russia’s first mistake was to underestimate the strength of the resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine’s own smaller armed forces. Russia has an annual defense budget of more than $60 billion, compared to Ukraine’s spending of just over $4 billion.
At the same time, Russia and many others seem to have overestimated their own military strength. President Putin had embarked on an ambitious modernization program for his military and he, too, may have believed his own hype.
A senior British military official said much of Russia’s investment had been spent on its vast nuclear arsenal and experimentation, which included the development of new weapons such as hypersonic missiles. Russia is supposed to have built the most advanced tank in the world – the T-14 Armata. But although he has been seen at the Victory Day Parade in Moscow’s Red Square, he has been missing in battle. Most of what Russia has deployed are older T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and rocket launchers.
At the start of the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage in the air, with the fighter jets it had moved close to the border outnumbering Ukraine’s air force by more than three to one. Most military analysts assumed that the invading force would rapidly gain superiority in the air, but it did not. Ukraine’s air defenses continue to prove effective, limiting Russia’s ability to maneuver.
Moscow may also have assumed that its special forces would play an important role, helping to deliver a swift and decisive blow.
A senior Western intelligence official told the BBC that Russia thought it could deploy lighter spearhead units such as Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers, “to pick off a small number of defenders and that would be it.” But in the first few days, his helicopter assault on Hostomel airport outside kyiv was repelled, denying Russia an airlift to bring in troops, equipment and supplies.
Instead, Russia has had to transport its supplies mainly by road. This has created traffic jams and bottlenecks that are easy ambush targets for Ukrainian forces. Some heavy armor has come off the road, only to get stuck in the mud, reinforcing the image of an army that has become “bogged down”.
Meanwhile, Russia’s long armored column from the north that was captured by satellites has not yet managed to encircle kyiv. The most significant advances have come from the south, where he has been able to use the railways to resupply his forces. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that President Putin’s forces “have lost momentum”.
“They’re stuck and they’re slowly but surely taking casualties.”
Russia had amassed a force of around 190,000 soldiers for this invasion and most of them have already committed to battle. But they have already lost about 10% of that strength. There are no reliable figures on the magnitude of Russian or Ukrainian losses. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian soldiers, although the United States estimates it to be probably half that number.
Western officials say there is also evidence of declining morale among Russian fighters, with one saying it was “very, very, low.” Another said the troops were “cold, tired and hungry” as they had been waiting in the snow for weeks in Belarus and Russia before they were given the order to invade.
Russia has already been forced to find more troops to make up for its losses, including moving reserve units from as far away as the east of the country and Armenia. Western officials believe it is also “highly likely” that foreign troops from Syria will soon join the fight, along with mercenaries from their secret Wagner group. A senior NATO military official said this was a sign that he was “scratching the bottom of the barrel”.
Russia has had problems with the basics. There is an old military saying that amateurs talk tactics while professionals study logistics. There is evidence that Russia has not given it enough consideration. The armored columns have run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Vehicles have broken down and been abandoned, then towed away by Ukrainian tractors.
Western officials also believe that Russia may be running out of some ammunition. It has already fired between 850 and 900 long-range precision munitions, including cruise missiles, which are more difficult to replace than unguided weapons. US officials have warned that Russia has reached out to China to help address some of its shortages.
On the contrary, there has been a steady flow of Western-supplied weapons into Ukraine, which has been a boost to its morale. The United States has just announced that it will provide an additional $800 million in defense support. In addition to more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it is expected to include the Switchblade, which is a small US-developed “kamikaze” drone that can be carried in a backpack before being launched to deliver a small explosive to targets. on the floor.
Western officials still warn that President Putin could “double down with more brutality.” They say he still has enough firepower to bombard Ukrainian cities for a “considerable period of time.”
Despite the setbacks, an intelligence official said President Putin was “unlikely to be deterred and may instead escalate. He is likely to remain confident that Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily.” And while Ukrainian forces have shown fierce resistance, that same official warned that without significant resupply they could also “eventually run out in terms of ammunition and numbers.” The odds may be better than when the war started, but they still seem stacked against Ukraine.
Add Comment