It has been 67 years since a team from Wales traveled to Colombes, on the northwest edge of Paris, and denied the hosts a Grand Slam.
Since then, on four occasions when the Grand Slam has been on the line at home, France have converted their chance to win the sweep.
England will have to reverse recent form and decades-long history to win on Saturday night.
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France have been the team of the tournament, dismissing all entrants with a combination of grit up front and stardust down the line. By contrast, England have been inconsistent in both performances and results, and could finish fifth for the second time in the Six Nations.
The odds are stacked against England, but France have revealed some slight weaknesses over the course of the campaign. Here are four weaknesses for the underdog to sink their teeth into.
1. Getting stuck in Jaminet
Melvyn Jaminet showed accuracy off the tee this week with a viral trick video of him hitting the upright of the bracket to the posts.
However, the French winger will have been working on both receiving and kicking this week.
England brutally exposed the limitations of France’s backfield in a 44-8 win at Twickenham three years agofinding time and space behind full-back Yoann Huget.
There is no such glaring weakness in the class of 2022. But Jaminet can be reached.
In the first round, Italy’s only try came after he spilled a shot into the box to throw France into defensive chaos.
A week later, he called to collect Ireland’s kick-off, but was caught off guard when Mack Hansen went over his head and raced into the corner to score an extraordinary goal. At Cardiff last weekend, Jaminet again looked restless under the high ball.
England took to the air to great effect in their 14-man rearguard action last weekend, combining precision with a hellish chase to repel Ireland.
“The pressure that England will put on France through kicking will be enormous.” Former England fly-half Danny Cipriani told the Rugby Union Daily on Monday.
“The choice of kick and chase will be everything.”
England manager Eddie Jones seems to agree. The random alignment of him, bringing in George Furbank as a winger and moving Freddie Steward to the wing, is designed to give England the advantage when the starter goes to the ball.
Jaminet will have to be ready.
2. Itoje’s eye at Dupont
The threat of French scrum-half Antoine Dupont is no secret. The World Player of the Year is France’s captain and fulcrum.
Of the four scrum-halfs who have started each of his team’s games this Six Nations campaign, he has carried more, more meters and kicked further and more often than any other.
| Scrum-half with four starts in the 2022 Six Nations | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | Meters manufactured | meters kicked | defeated defenders | |
| DuPont (France) | 284 | 188 | 1,311 | eleven |
| Gibson-Park (Ireland) | 260 | 102 | 560 | 5 |
| Price (sco) | 248 | 158 | 543 | 13 |
| Williams (Wal) | 215 | 94 | 515 | 5 |
Fortunately for England, they have a possible antidote.
Maro Itoje was at his best against Ireland, perfectly timing a dive over a ruck to break Jamison Gibson-Park and force the knockout that denied Caelan Doris a try moments later.
It was just one of several occasions that Itoje jammed Ireland’s attacking gears.
Itoje also has form in intimidating opposing nines. Test A was at Twickenham last year when he targeted Scotsman Ali Price.
In a game that England ultimately lost, Itoje unleashed a series of box kicks and hovered whenever the scrum-half raised his head.
Will Jones deploy him on a similar man-to-man mission once again?
3. Ready for the fight at the lineout
With Courtney Lawes playing flanker and Nick Isiekwe joining Saracens team-mate Itoje in the second row, England have a host of well-coached options at the line-out.
France is less blessed.
Cameron Woki is your preferred option. And a good one. But France lacks alternatives and lures. Paul Willemse’s power keeps the engine room rattling, but his 20-stone structure doesn’t fly between lifters as easily.
Wales’ selection of versatile Seb Davies in the back line against France gave them a similar multitude of threats and put Julien Marchand’s shot under pressure.
Jones wondered aloud earlier in the week if France could mix it up, perhaps promoting Thibaud Flament from the bench to shore up their line-out.
“The lineout will be a key competition in the game,” he said.
“Whether they bring in another jumper, we’ll just have to wait and see.”
France has not. And now it is England’s responsibility to show that they should have.
4. Bank in France self-fuel
And finally, the great imponderable: pressure.
France has not won a Grand Slam in 12 years. They also haven’t made it to the final round with the possibility still alive ever since. It’s a new situation for a generation of players and, in front of an expectant home crowd, the pressure will blow the barometer.
The closest France has come to a Grand Slam since 2010 was their run in 2020. They stumbled in the fourth round when Mohamed Hoauas’ 37th-minute red card for a hay over Jamie Ritchie gave them plenty to do against Scotland.
Six months earlier, France were 19-10 up at half-time in the World Cup quarter-finals before Sebastien Vahaamahina elbowed Aaron Wainwright in the head and opened the door for a comeback for Wales.
France’s discipline has been impeccable so far this campaign. They have accumulated fewer penalties than England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales and have not seen a card of either colour.
But will that composure vanish if the scoreline stays tight and the Stade de France starts to rumble and grumble?
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