{"id":358,"date":"2022-03-08T04:50:33","date_gmt":"2022-03-08T04:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worabia.com\/news\/2022\/03\/08\/will-war-fast-track-the-energy-transition-2\/"},"modified":"2022-03-08T04:50:33","modified_gmt":"2022-03-08T04:50:33","slug":"will-war-fast-track-the-energy-transition-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worabia.com\/news\/science\/358\/","title":{"rendered":"Will war fast-track the energy transition?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Europe pushed gas and nuclear as an essential part of the energy transition from high-carbon fossil fuels such as oil and coal. But since Ukraine invaded, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has inspired a sudden push for energy independence, especially through renewable energy sources.<\/p>\n

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, of the neoliberal FDP, now calls renewables “actions of freedom”, while Chancellor Olaf Solz describes them as “critical to our security”.<\/p>\n

“The faster we move forward with the expansion of renewable energy, the better,” Scholz said a few days after the invasion.<\/p>\n

However, at the moment, Germany is dependent on Russia for both oil and at least 32% of its gas. It is based on $ 700 million (\u20ac 640 million) a day, according to some estimates. The rate was higher, but Russia has been cutting gas supplies to Europe since last year, the International Energy Agency said in a recent report. <\/p>\n

In response, the Stand with Ukraine coalition, which includes hundreds of organizations around the world, including environmental groups Greenpeace and 350.org, called for a ban on Russian energy imports. He went a step further by calling on world governments to end fossil fuel production – and to “manage the transition to clean and safe renewable energy quickly and fairly”.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

“Putin has deliberately armed himself with fossil gas to increase his existing energy dominance in the European Union,” the coalition said in a letter on Friday, calling for an end to global fossil fuel addiction. They added that gas and oil were used by Putin “to fuel the terror with escalating violence, underscoring the role of the fossil fuel system in fomenting conflict.”<\/p>\n

Noting that 40% of Russia’s federal budget comes from oil and gas – which also account for 60% of Russian exports – the coalition called for “bold steps towards a radical overhaul of our societies.”<\/p>\n

The publication of an IPCC climate condemnation report on Monday provided further impetus to promote the transition to clean energy.<\/p>\n

But do we have the means to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy sources? <\/p>\n

Differentiation or carbonization?<\/h2>\n

The issue of energy independence remains divided between the two camps: whether self-sufficiency comes from other local or “friendly” gas sources or even from nuclear sources, which means differentiation. or through more ambitious energy independence achieved through local clean energy supplies such as wind and solar, ie carbon-free emissions?<\/p>\n

This split was evident in the details of the International Energy Agency 10-point drawing<\/a>released on Thursday to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian gas until next winter. <\/p>\n

While the plan focuses in part on getting rid of carbon offsets through greater absorption of renewable energy sources, it also calls for greater gas diversification – and proposes temporarily delaying the shutdown of five nuclear reactors in Europe.<\/p>\n

“In the short term, the only real choice is diversification,” said David Victor, a professor of innovation and public policy at the School of Global Politics and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego.<\/p>\n

While he is confident that renewable energy sources can be scaled up in the medium term, especially offshore wind power, he says political resistance to large-scale wind farm facilities, for example, will halt significant expansion in the near future.<\/p>\n

“I do not see governments realistically removing these obstacles,” he said, referring to an inevitable public backlash.<\/p>\n

But for the UK-based Carbon Tracker think tank, the argument that Europe could reduce its dependence on Russian gas by diversifying local fossil fuel sources by “bridging” and importing liquefied natural gas, also known as LNG, from the US and elsewhere. it is neither realistic nor cost effective.<\/p>\n

The initial problem is the long delivery time, which can be decades, required to build new gas terminals and the source of local deposits, which means that direct price pressures will not be resolved, according to a Carbon Tracker blog post. .<\/p>\n

In contrast, existing solar and wind energy resources can be significantly scaled up as part of existing coal emission policies. It can be done more economically, according to the sharp drop in prices of renewable energy sources.<\/p>\n

“Renewable energy sources are already cheaper investments than existing gas capacity,” said Jonathan Sims, senior analyst at Carbon Tracker. He added that the cost of storing batteries will also be economically competitive by 2030, which means that variable wind and solar energy production will be less of a problem.<\/p>\n

Ketan Joshi, an Oslo-based author and communicator of climate science, said we already had “strong knowledge of how to integrate wind and solar energy into complex, interconnected grid systems”, adding that it was “certainly technically and economically viable”. “.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Change of mind and regulations<\/h2>\n

Like Victor, Josie warns that “roadblocks will be political and social”, including the effort by “communities and areas hosting new technologies” to embrace the transition.<\/p>\n

Sims, meanwhile, sees the “many obstacles” in a more ambitious effort to get rid of carbon emissions as “politics-related” rather than economic or technical.<\/p>\n

One hurdle is the very time-consuming regulatory approval processes for wind and solar projects – which in Italy, for example, take up to seven years, leaving the country with very little clean energy capacity needed to meet climate change. objectives.<\/p>\n

This, he said, may make investors prefer individual “large-scale new gas projects” because it is easier to get approval from many “smaller wind or solar parks”.<\/p>\n

However, many EU Member States are seeking to relax or simplify planning and regulatory processes to “accelerate the growth of low carbon”, Sims said. The current crisis is likely to accelerate this relaxation.<\/p>\n

Electric heating to trigger the energy transition <\/h2>\n

So what kind of energy consumption can be released from coal in a short period of time to reduce dependence on gas? <\/p>\n

“Electrification of homes, cars, industry and buildings is vital to meeting the demand for gas,” said Ketan Joshi. “These are not like power grids, you do not need a ‘bridge’. You just have to change the gas infrastructure to a clean one. [energy]. “<\/p>\n

In Germany alone, buildings generate about a quarter of their greenhouse gas emissions through the consumption of mineral-based energy – especially heating. <\/p>\n

To minimize dependence on Russian fossil fuels and mitigate climate change, the German environmental think tank Wuppertal Institute published this week a study commissioned by Greenpeace that shows how heating can work fully with renewable energy sources. in 2035. <\/p>\n

The key will be the replacement of electric heat pumps, powered by renewable energy sources, for gas and oil heating systems, which are often powered by Russian fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

“A smart strategy focused on increasing efficiency and expanding renewable energy sources not only reduces supply risks,” the institute said in a statement, adding that the transition would also be “very economically attractive for households, businesses and public organizations”.<\/p>\n

For environmental activist and author Bill McKibben, much of Europe could go to heat pumps much earlier. “President Biden should immediately invoke the Defense Production Act to persuade American manufacturers to start producing electric heat pumps in bulk so that we can send them to Europe where they can be installed in time to dramatically reduce Putin’s power.” wrote this week. <\/p>\n

While David Victor insists that in the short term, diversified gas sources, including imported LNG delivered to floating terminals, will be needed for the EU to quickly eliminate Russian hydrocarbons, Jonathan Sims suggests that carbonation can also be reduced. <\/p>\n

Although gas “played a valuable role” in the initial transition from coal-fired electricity, for the Sims this “short-term role should not be extended” as it would require extensive investment in large-scale infrastructure that would not pay off. <\/p>\n

Building an electricity system around “low-cost and lower-risk renewables” is an “opportunity to eventually become self-sufficient in our energy supplies,” he said, adding that the approach would accelerate progress towards clear zero-emission targets. <\/p>\n

Edited by: Tamsin Walker<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n