Will MIG-29 fighter jets currently owned by NATO member Poland be supplied to Ukraine? And if so, how will they be delivered? This question was hotly debated between Washington, Kiev, Brussels and Berlin this week.
The leaders of Poland and the United States discussed how a possible surrender could be organized. All NATO members, meanwhile, have expressed grave concern that the move could provoke Russian retaliation. German Chancellor Olaf Soltz ruled out the possibility, while Foreign Minister Annalena Bayerbok did not.
These fast, agile MIGs were first developed by the Soviet-era Mikoyan-Gurevich design bureau in the 1970s as air-to-air fighters. Subsequent iterations, such as the MIG-29, can also be developed as bombers. Only three NATO member states continue to use these aircraft: Bulgaria, Slovakia and Poland. While the first two hold 16 and 12 MIG-29s, Poland is believed to hold between 26 and 33. Most of them were purchased from Poland by Germany in 2003 at a symbolic price of one euro each. The fighter jets used to belong to the East German Air Force. Romania, which had 20 MIG-29 aircraft, decommissioned them many years ago.
Although there are still many MIG-29s around, they are not necessarily ready for battle. Old-fashioned Soviet-era aircraft usually require extensive maintenance. While Poland has the capacity to repair its fleet, Bulgaria and Slovakia have relied on Russia to repair their fighter jets. For this reason, only four to six of Bulgaria’s MIG-29s are currently operational. As a result, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov rejected calls in early March for his country to fly aircraft to Ukraine. Spanish NATO fighter jets, now based at Bulgaria’s Graf Ignatievo air base, have been guarding the country’s airspace since mid-February.
No game change
DW has learned from Bulgarian government sources that the country’s refusal to supply Ukraine with MIG-29 stems from disagreements within the governing alliance. The Bulgarian Socialist Party, which has traditionally maintained a pro-Russian stance, has threatened to leave the quadripartite coalition if Bulgaria equips Ukraine. “In light of these political factors, I expect [the handover of] Polish MIG [to be the likeliest outcome]”Gustav Gressel, the military expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
What makes the MIG-29 such a powerful weapon in this war? “Ukraine could develop them immediately, without the need for weeks of training,” said Carlo Masala, a defense analyst at Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Regular thoughts also play a role. “Russia has not yet achieved air superiority in Ukraine and will be careful or refrain from sending its most vulnerable aircraft, especially bombers, if there is a risk of Ukrainian fighter jets colliding,” said Gustav Gressel. This, he says, reduces the risk of bombing Russian carpets and gives Ukrainian cities a better chance of survival.
Masala is skeptical. “The MIG tradition would not be a game changer in this war – but it represents a new escalation in Western involvement,” he says.
Sword rattle, mind games
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would consider the MIG surrender to Ukraine a direct intervention in the conflict, implying that this would justify retaliation. This, in turn, could provoke a NATO self-defense clause and lead to a full-scale war with Russia. The question of who could deliver fighter jets to Ukraine and how it is therefore very full. “Immediate delivery, either by Ukrainian pilots collecting aircraft in Poland or by Polish pilots flying to Ukraine, would be very dangerous,” says Masala. “This would open up the region to a warring party.” That is why Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on March 7 banned the delivery of weapons to Ukraine directly through Hungarian territory.
However, Gressel doubts that Russia would launch a retaliatory attack on Poland or another NATO country if tensions escalate. “This equates to rattling and mind games, there is no indication that Russia is planning an attack; Russia needs all its forces in Ukraine,” Gressel said. “Hitting Poland or any other country would seriously complicate Russia’s military situation.”
Illegal delivery
So how could fighter jets get to Ukraine? “It simply came to our notice then [into the country] “It would be the wisest choice,” said Masala. It will take a long time.The Russian Navy has sealed the shores of Ukraine and the only remaining port, Odessa.
Delivery of jets ashore across the Carpathian Mountains is a formidable challenge. “This is almost impossible, in part because of the wingspan of the jet,” says Gressel. He says the plane should fly to Ukraine. He suggests a way to do this: “Give the aircraft a new paint and then ask a Ukrainian or Polish pilot to throw them away; all electronic systems should be turned off during a cloudy night.” with the US Air Force escorting them to the border. hide the operation “, says Gressel.
Diversion tactics?
Decision makers in the US, Poland, Brussels and Germany have openly commented and issued unexpectedly contradictory statements about the proposed jet transfer. “The possible surrender of MIG has been discussed, there has been a lot of public debate and very little action,” says Carlo Masala. In recent days, top politicians have expressed a wealth of views on the proposed tradition, leaving some wondering if politicians have tried to deliberately blackmail.
“This war was accompanied by a huge psychological war, making it almost impossible to distinguish facts from fantasy and verify information,” says Masala. “All this talk could be a distraction,” says Gressel. It is certain that fighter jets will fly, or have already flown, to Ukraine. As German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a televised appearance last week: “Not every plan is officially announced.”
This article was originally written in German
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