Several congratulatory videos have been circulated on social networks in Ukraine and Turkey in recent days, boasting about the achievements of the Turkish drone Bayraktar TB2. The Ukrainian army has successfully used the drone against the Russian army several times, the videos claim, with English and Turkish subtitles. They often include photos of explosions or destroyed Russian vehicles and equipment.
But how successful the Bayraktar drones, often known simply as TB2s, were during the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not yet been independently verified.
Ukraine has owned TB2 drones since 2019 and has bought about 50 in the last three years. Last Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that another, unspecified number of TB2 drones had been purchased and that they were ready to go into battle. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country had benefited greatly from Turkish-made drones.
Turkish-made drones a popular market
As usual, with regard to arms shipments, Turkey has not commented on the matter. People often learn about the existence of these drones only from media reports, if they are used in battle or if the recipient country is talking about it.
Bayraktar TB2 was developed and produced by a Turkish company, Baykar Technology. The company is owned by two brothers and was founded for the first time in 1986. Over time it has developed into a giant of Turkish arms manufacturing, belonging to the Bayraktar family. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar, is the company’s chief technology officer.
According to the company, it quadrupled its exports between 2006 and 2021. Media reports say TB2 has placed business orders from 16 countries, including Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. Poland was the first NATO member to buy the drone last year, adding 24 to its arsenal.
TB2 has flown more than 420,000 hours in places such as Syria, Libya and Iraq. Many analysts believe the drone was a decisive weapon during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020.
TB2 has recently been used in Ethiopia as well. According to investigators, a drone strike killed at least 59 civilians in Tigray.
The Bayraktar TB2 has a length of 6.5 meters (21 feet) and a wingspan of 12 meters. It can stay in the air for up to 24 hours and travels at a maximum speed of 220 kilometers per hour (135 miles per hour). In addition, TB2 is less expensive than other similar drones.
Could TB2 affect the war in Ukraine?
It is not clear how many drones Ukraine actually has at its disposal and whether Turkey has delivered the entire last order. But if Ukraine had all the drones it asked for, could that change the outcome of the country’s war with Russia?
Wolfgang Richter, a retired German army colonel and military expert at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security Affairs (SWP), does not believe it.
A drone can only attack one target at a time, he pointed out. “That means he can remove tanks or artillery,” he told DW. If the Ukrainian army had all the unmanned aircraft it had ordered, it could inflict casualties on the Russian side, but compared to ground combat, the impact of the drone war would be limited, Richter said.
Richter noted that there was a column of about 600 combat vehicles approaching the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and that the Russians were attacking Ukraine from four different directions. In addition, no one knew if Ukrainian fighter jets were still operating or if some had already been destroyed.
What is the Turkish position on the conflict?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained good relations with both Russia and Ukraine for years. Turkey supplied fighter drones to Ukraine, but bought S-400 surface-to-air missiles from the Russians.
It will become more difficult to maintain this kind of balance in the future, said Daria Isachenko, a security and defense policy expert at the Turkish Center for Applied Studies at SWP. He believes that Erdogan can not afford to play a favorite with either Russia or Ukraine, as this would have serious security and economic consequences.
Russia can not replace what the Western alliance offers to Turkey, nor can the West replace Russia in Turkey’s calculations, he said. Thus, he believes, Erdogan will do only what is necessary.
Although Turkey has invoked the Montreux Convention and blocked the passage of Russian warships from naval areas it controls, Isachenko does not believe that Turkey will join the Western sanctions regime against Russia.
“Because this could quickly be followed by a response from Moscow,” he told DW. “And that would hit the Turkish economy hard, especially in sectors like tourism, construction and wheat imports.” Turkey imports about 70% of its wheat from Russia.
This article was originally published in German
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